Celebrate Seasonality

With Memorial Day just barely behind us, and the advent of summer firmly upon us, the real estate industry begins to party. Calm down, we are not talking keggers, who’s who events, or even social networking (although we will ask you to don a name tag). These events are strictly marketing and sales tools where each community in turn throws an event targeting individuals whom they think are most likely to buy or help sell homes before the summer doldrums take over. Seasonality has always been a part of real estate sales. Historically the fall and the spring are the busiest selling seasons while the summer is hands down the slowest. There is no exact science to the change in buyer patterns but I find myself having a lot of conversations that go something like this:

Sales agent: “They loved the home. It’s everything they wanted and it fits into their budget!”
Me: “Fantastic – did they buy it?”
Sales agent: “Oh, no. They want to wait until they return from their 6 week cruise, trip to London, and week in the Hamptons before making a decision.”
Me: “So this fall?”
Sales Agent: “Yup”

Check out http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/04/data_shows_nyc_is_seasonal.html for a slightly more analytical presentation of seasonality in the real estate market.

Now that event season is here, crafting party concepts and coordinating events that will attract people despite their busy schedules (do I go to the Palmer Hill event or my daughter’s graduation?) take a central role in my daily responsibilities. To be honest, event planning is not one of my strong suites. I am not particularly interested in, or good at, organizing caterers and I know absolutely nothing about floral arrangements or linens. In fact my idea of a good time involves nothing more then plastic cups, some chips and guacamole, and a bucket full of Coronas – probably not a concept that sells luxury homes. Luckily for me there are usually professionals on hand to help and we have been able to throw some great events like our recent Pool Grand Opening at Palmer Hill (thanks Garden Catering http://www.gardencatering.net/). If you missed it, or are interested in taking advantage of some free food and drink while previewing and buying (hint, hint – because the volume of sales goes down in the summer your buying power increases actually making it a great time to buy) not to worry, there is still time to get yourself on the list. All you have to do is register on the website of the community you would like to preview and in the comments section of your registration write “Andrea said I can come.” Upcoming events include but are not limited to:

Hudson Harbor – various events all summer long including Rosé on the River, Guest Chefs, and Wine Tastings. http://www.hudsonharbornyc.com/

Palmer Hill – Fourth of July Bash, and potentially outdoor movies, Shakespeare readings, and homemade ice cream tastings throughout the summer. http://www.palmerhillhomes.com/

Cassa – Grand Opening Event featuring an appearance by World Famous architect Enrique Norton. http://www.cassanyc.com/

See you there – I will bring the bucket of Coronas.

Cupcakes, Ramen Noodles, My Cat Fluffy and Other Indicators that the Recession is OVER!

Despite my recent completion of NYU Stern's comprehensive intro to economics class "FIRMS AND MARKETS," even i sometimes struggle with the complex economic theories and indicators used to judge the health of the economy. To help us out, i have enlisted the expertise of Jennifer Lathrop, an analyst in our research department who will explain all (pictured right) . She has kindly put together the following user-friendly post to make economic theory a little clearer, a little more relevant, and a little funnier. Take it away Jen.

In the Real Estate business we have been eager for the end of the recession before it was even declared an official recession. Crystal balls quickly became wishing wells and we began daily hunts for signs that things are getting better, something, anything. We all know that you can never really tell where the bottom is until after it has passed but that does little to quench the anxiety. We still want to know: What are the signs that a recession is over?

There are some official markers. Job loss is halted, consumer confidence index grows, the stock market stabilizes, and toxic assets are cleared off the books for a fresh and hopefully more mature start. We have been seeing some great signs. Jim Kramer amid all his yelling said that it is the bottom, federal interest rates are still at an all time low (again as mentioned in earlier posts- now is a good time to buy), banks have their bailouts and are working through toxic assets, and the media got bored with scaring people about real estate and has moved onto pigs.

An article by MSN gave 5 signs the recession is ending, including the never failing and fully scientific “cupcake indicator.” http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/StockInvestingTrading/5-signs-of-the-recessions-end.aspx

Really? Cupcakes? The cupcake indicator claims that people are more willing to indulge in small luxuries when the economy is good and we can monitor this indulgence by watching cupcake sales. It makes sense…kind of. But who has time to monitor cupcake sales and what if you don’t like cupcakes? To solve these dilemmas I made my own list of 5 indicators to watch:

1. Fluffy the cat is back to being fluffy. You’ll know it’s over when you can finally budget for the occasional grooming instead of the do-it-at-home variety in your 8x8 walkup (it looked bigger on the floor plan). I don’t know if the money saved was worth it. You never know what kind of retaliation Fluffy has planned while you are sleeping.


2. Ramón noodle sales revenue shows a decrease quarter over quarter. What was once primarily the staple of starving college freshman became a go-to meal during the recession at 50 cents a pack. Interestingly, all the money saved on food went directly to the increased amount of alcohol consumed while “networking” so perhaps this wasn’t the smartest frugal move. Regardless, when people begin trading up to Easy Mac (retail approx $3) we will know we are almost in the clear.

3. Your unemployed friend who has been crashing on your couch finally moves to their own place. It seems like a cause for celebration but upon further review you notice you are now missing your pizza pan, your “it-bag” from last season (you couldn’t afford this season’s bag), and Fluffy…In a way it was cheaper to have her stay.

4. The “it’s the thought that counts” gift for your friend’s birthday flops…hard. When the recession ends so does the appropriateness of hand made, home made gifts. If only her birthday had been 3 weeks earlier - she would have loved the dried Ramón noodle picture frame you made her.

5. Your landlord has morphed back into the person who is never around until its time to collect the rent and who doesn’t care if your ceiling is falling down, just like they were before the recession. Not only that, but now they aren’t calling every month to lower your rent if only you’ll stay the remainder of your lease.

Geez, I’m starting to get nostalgic about the “good ol’ days” of the recession.

Time to bake more cupcakes!

It's that good

My apologies for not writing for the past 2 weeks, I have been feeling un-inspired and have fallen prey to a mild case of the real estate blues. You know that feeling of despair that seems to be going around as we meet with more banks, less developers, and see fewer prospects? Well I am shaking it off with some exciting news. We are proud to announce the opening of Cassa Hotel and World Condominium Residences. Yes, you heard me right –we are opening our doors while other people (like Steelwork Lofts, +Art, and Isis Condominium to name a few) are slamming theirs shut http://curbed.com/archives/2008/12/08/arrested_development_new_buildings_hybernating_for_winter.php).

So what’s our secret? It’s simple really. Cassa is just that good. With a swanky hip hotel in the base of the building, brought to you by the savvy hoteliers who just launched the Betsey hotel in Miami Beach and who are so cool that they can get away with naming their company Desires (http://www.desires.com/), an on-site five star restaurant (we are not ready to announce who it is yet but I promise it’s going to be good!) and hotel services to boot – Cassa is going to be the ultimate place to live if you desire (get it?) service and prestige. Picture this, you are sitting at home one rainy Saturday afternoon and you get a hankering for a martini. Call downstairs and voila the martini arrives perfectly appointed on a silver plate. Don’t feel like walking your dog, doing your laundry, or cleaning up after yourself? Not to worry just call down for maid service and a dog walker. Even better, you can get turn down service whenever you want. Just picture coming home after a long day at work to a turned down bed complete with that tasty little mint sitting right on your pillow. Ahhhhhhh.

And if that’s not enough, the homes at Cassa start on the 28th floor and all feature a corner window. So not only are you on top of the world but you feel like you can see forever. I am not kidding – Cassa is the real deal. Check it out – http://www.cassanyc.com/.